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<text> <title> Latvian Professor Emphasizes Need for Nationalism </title> <article> <hdr> Foreign Broadcast Information Service, January 23, 1991 Regional Affairs: Professor Emphasizes Need for Nationalism </hdr> <body> [Abridged speech by Olgert Dzenitis, associate professor of the Mathematics Department at Latvian University, at the "Chances of the Latvian Nation" conference held at Latvian University in early October: "Where Does the Olgert Dzenitis Model Lead." Moscow SOVETSKAYA ROSSIYA in Russian 14 Dec 90 Second Edition p 1] [Text] Recently the stream of alarming letters from Latvia has picked up. Their authors, people from various ethnic backgrounds, with different professions, and of different ages, are concerned about the growth of nationalist sentiments, the discrimination against the non-indigenous population, and the fact that national chauvinism is becoming the dominant ideology. A sample of this is found in a speech by Olgert Dzenitis, associate professor of a department at Latvian University, at the "Chances of the Latvian Nation" conference, which was held on his initiative. The speech was published in the Latvian press. We offer this slightly abridged speech for the attention of our readers. Emotions and arguments based on so-called desirable thinking have been less and less convincing lately. Facts expressed in numbers are needed in order to influence the course of events. This applies to virtually all spheres and, of course, to demography as well. Birth, growth, maturity, aging, and death are natural phenomena which may also be described by a mathematical model. The birth and death rates expressed per thousand and the distribution of the populace by age groups as of the reporting period are given values in the model. This distribution may be obtained by calculating data on the populace. Data from the 1970, 1979, and 1989 population censuses were used to "fine-tune" the model. This fine-tuning suggested that the birth rate of Latvians is eight percent higher and the birth rate of non-Latvians is 11 percent lower than the average for Latvia. I would like to remind you once again that these data were obtained by using official census data. Of course, these data do not include soldiers of the army of occupation and vagrants, so-called "bomzhi" [based on the Soviet militia abbreviation for "without a definite domicile"]. As estimated by the chief of the republic's Provisional Coordinating Council for Immigration, Mr. Maris Plavnieks, the number of vagrants in Latvia is about 150,000. It is unknown what the strength of the Army contingent deployed in Latvia is, but it is definitely not less than 250,000 people. If we take into account this group of people there will only be 42.8 percent Latvians in Latvia by the year 2000 if migration continues, and 44.3 percent if migration is discontinued in 1990. There was a banner headline, the number 2,000,000, in the newspaper JAUNAKAS ZINAS ("Latest News") on 1 July 1939. This was the total number of residents of the Republic of Latvia. We learn from this article that Latvians accounted for 74.7 percent of the population in Latvia, and for 63 percent in Riga. In late 1939 and in 1940 before the Soviet occupation, when the White Germans [as published] repatriated, the demographic standing of Latvians was reinforced even further. These years were the golden age of the Latvian people. I believe that a 75-percent share of the indigenous populace should be considered the lower limit of the sign of a nation state. There are only two ways to attain this strategic goal at our disposal: 1) an abrupt increase in the birth rate of Latvians, 2) the departure of the colonizers. At present, passive and faint-hearted "talkers" among the Latvian people see prospects for averting the national catastrophe of the Latvian people precisely in increasing the Latvian birth rate. On top of that, at times they enlist the help of healthy pornography and eroticism. Of course, they are men. I am not aware of a single female social or political activist who would propagate this method as a panacea. What do calculations indicate in conjunction with this? In order to ensure that there are 75 percent Latvians in the year 2020, their birth rate should increase to 47.1 per thousand beginning as soon as 1990 and migration should be halted, or the rate should increase to 54.8 per thousand if migration continues at the rate of the 1980s. In other words, every family should have an average of between 7.2 and 8.3 children. To be sure, all possible incentives should be provided for the Latvian birth rate; however, this is not a way out of the critical situation. Only the second alternative, the departure of colonizers, remains. For example, in order to achieve the pre-occupation demographic condition in Riga--63 percent Latvians--3.8 percent of the non-Latvians should leave Riga annually beginning in 1991. In the first year, this will amount to about 22,000 people, and in the last year, 2020, about 7,000. The departure of the colonizers is the only way out. We need to support this and develop this to the point of a target-oriented program. I agree entirely with the chairman of the Legal Commission of the Latvian Committee, Mr. Erik Veber, that we will have to make concessions to Russia on very many issues if only it removes its citizens. In my perception, the first critical moment in the life of the Latvian people occurred in the beginning of the 18th century when the oppressor, Count Sheremetev, respected by Peter I, butchered Vidzeme, and following this massacre plague raged all over Latvia. Please recall "The Pesigolovtsev [mythical creatures--humans with the heads of dogs] Settlement" by Father Rutku. I believe that now, in the late 20th century, a second critical moment has come for our people. Where are we to find the strength to survive this and not disappear? There is only one answer: in all-embracing nationalism. Nationalism, if it is alive among the people, is still one of the mighty stimuli which move the people forward. The common sentiments of the people, traditions, living conditions, and conditions for grasping the commonality of goals in life are associated with this. If the spirit of the people is not dead, national ideas come alive at critical moments; they possess the minds of the people and inspire the people to make a maximum of effort and sacrifices. The principles of nationalism have firm and deep roots; they have not lost their significance in our time as well. Only the communist man-haters have preached a crusade against nationalism and destroyed 100 ethnic entities in 72 years. We must regretfully conclude that nationalism among the Latvian people, and especially among young students, has melted to a considerable degree. This is a well-thought-out foul product of an educational system--first of all, the very thorough selection of teachers and college professors on the principle of "ideological purity" and, secondly, curriculums. With a view to overcoming this national void, we need to develop the ideology of Latvian nationalism as soon as possible. Of course, we will be accused of racism and apartheid. We should not be afraid of this. </body> </article> </text>